Indian Wells 2022: Women's Draw Predictions
Swiatek to keep her form going? Badosa to defend her title? Ostapenko to hit the ball in the court? Our predictions for the women's singles semifinalists at the BNP Paribas Open.
Ah, Indian Wells! The second WTA 1000 of the season… Not half a year has passed since the fifth Slam graced our screens yet here we are once more, back in tennis paradise.
I won’t keep you - having split the women’s draw into four quarters, today we’re trying to predict the eventual semifinalists.
Let’s go!
There’s certainly room for a few upsets in this part of the draw, many of our players not having found their feet at the beginning of 2022. See above for exactly how I think the draw will play out and see below for my thoughts…
Emma Raducanu.
When Emma Raducanu landed in California back in October, expectations were high - the amount of pressure she must have felt, her loss to Sasnovich was almost a forgone conclusion.
Unfortunately, not only does the pressure remain, she has also been facing physical problems on-court. If we also stack on the fact Raducanu doesn’t seem at home in slower conditions yet, she goes into a match with Garcia or Yastremska under heavy threat of an upset. I’d back the Ukranian to beat her - if she does get through though, I think Tamara Zidansek’s forehand zip could surprise her from the back of the court.
Karolina Pliskova.
When we think of Karolina Pliskova, we naturally think faster courts: accentuate that big serve, flat strokes that skip through the court.
In terms of winning percentage however, Pliskova’s best WTA 1000 event is at Indian Wells, followed closely by the Italian Open. She has the variation required on serve to give herself a chance on any surface plus the trajectory from which she executes that shot alone allows her to overcome potentially blustery conditions. Additionally, if she’s hitting the ball well enough on the day, Pliskova can benefit from more time on the ball.
Despite her decent record here, I don’t trust her from the back of the court against a better baseliner. I’ll back her to make a deep run but not to get passed the quarters.
Alizé Cornet
Having taken Barbora Krejcikova’s spot at top-seed after the Czech pulled out with injury, Alizé Cornet will be looking to take full advantage of her good fortune.
A win over Cirstea might be tough but the slower courts should allow Cornet to overheat her opponent with her retrieval abilities. The run stops there though - Simona Halep will be out for blood in looking to overturn her 1-4 deficit against the Frenchwoman.
Simona Halep.
The woman to beat in this section of the draw.
Simona Halep has improved her form since losing to Sasnovich at the last edition of Indian Wells in October and frankly, if we don’t rate her Melbourne title run at the start of the year, a big result is on the horizon for her.
Sure, Coco Gauff could be a pretty tough third-round but I trust the steadiness of Halep’s game to come through that. Conditions slightly favour her in a fourth-round with Cornet (though it’ll be tough) and they’ll certain favour her in a quarterfinal with Pliskova.
1st Semifinalist: Simona Halep
The winner here is fairly predictable but the bottom half of this section is a bastard to predict. Let’s give it a go…
Daria Kasatkina.
In a relatively weak part of the draw, Daria Kasatkina should be able to excel.
She’ll have the weight of shot to find a way passed Arantxa Rus and the control of shot to go untroubled by the windy conditions and big serving of Qinwen Zheng (big question mark over Angelique Kerber who we’re not expecting to make it this far).
If she does make it through to the fourth-round, a fourth straight heavy loss to Kasatkina 2.0 (Iga Swiatek) will likely await.
Belinda Bencic.
This is where things get trickier.
Whilst I don't believe Kaia “The Upset” Kanepi will meet Bencic in the first-round1, Bencic vs Svitolina is a bit of a stab in the dark (if Svitolina even manages to make it through Harriet Dart who is playing some solid tennis). Bar any ongoing physical issues, I’m backing Bencic to put together a few decent wins purely based on being in slightly better form… Though realistically this fourth-round is pretty open.
Garbine Muguruza.
This part of the draw is even trickier-er than the last.
Muguruza’s steady blows should be tailor-made for the conditions at Indian Wells but for some reason she hasn’t been able to put together a decent run at the event. It’s very, very difficult for me to back her beating Madison Keys but the American can have a rough time acclimatising to tournament conditions (I wouldn’t be surprised to see her unpicked by the retrieval abilities of Misaki Doi).
If they do come up against each other though, the heavy but stable shots of Muguruza could do some damage against Keys. Let’s say Muguruza to reach the quarters (with not too much confidence)…
Iga Swiatek.
Ah, Iga. Just when I was feeling uncertain in my predictions.
Swiatek should have no problems in her second-round. Sure, Tauson is always dangerous but I don’t trust her in slower conditions yet. Daria Kasatkina is a poor woman’s Swiatek unfortunately - I fully back a fourth consecutive comfortable win for the Pole in this match-up. Finally, Swiatek should have few problems with whoever it is that scrapes through to the quarters.
I’d go as far as saying Iga is the outright favourite2.
2nd Semifinalist: Iga Swiatek
Some difficult choices in here but I’m pretty confident about most of these.
Paula Badosa.
It’s probably unfair to say Paula Badosa is suffering from a slump in form.
I’d definitely have backed the defending champ to do better than a 6-2 6-3 loss to Coco Gauff in Qatar but she won the title in Sydney only a couple of months ago and rode that form to the fourth-round of Australia. Obviously conditions in Indian Wells suit her more so than Oz so she should be feeling pretty confident.
Where she has suffered of late however is in her second-serve win-percentage against decent returners. Who better than Queen Penko to take advantage? Badosa to lose a tight fourth-round.
Anett Kontaveit.
It’s difficult for anyone to bet against Anett Kontaveit at the moment but her game can be more predictable than you’d think.
The Estonian relies on point construction and controlled aggression more so than other players and whilst her serve is generally an asset indoors, in blustery conditions, it can be easily neutralised. Add on the fact the courts won’t make it easy for Kontaveit’s flatter forehand to power through and she could run into some problems.
Form could see her through to the fourth-round but a deep run seems unlikely.
Naomi Osaka.
Tucked away in the first-round is an enthralling match-up between former US Open champs Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens. This match could be an issue if Naomi doesn’t find her feet quickly especially given Stephens owns a 2-0 head-to-head against her.
If she makes it through that then I’d start to feel better about her chances. The former champ is a cut above Kudermetova and Pegula (if Pegula makes it through Bouzkova) and her firepower should do plenty of damage to Kontaveit’s serve. Could she emerge victorious in a quarterfinal?
Jelena Ostapenko.
Tough to say with Ostapenko in this kind of mood.
She was electric last time we were in the Californian desert, she will likely be electric now having rode a wave of form the last month or so. I wouldn’t pay too much notice to the Kontaveit loss in Doha, that was… an odd change in momentum after a challenge completely threw her off. With Leylah Fernandez possibly fatigued, we’ll probably see her play Amanda Anisimova - okay, this is a bit of a dice roll but I’ll back Ostapenko by a whisker.
See above for why I think she’ll beat Badosa and against Naomi Osaka… I’m looking forward to that match if it does happen. They last played at the French Open in 2016 - form and conditions make me think Ostapenko will avenge that loss.
3rd Semifinalist: Jelena Ostapenko
Again, probably an easier part of the draw to call. I’m happy with my choices here!
Ons Jabeur.
Last October’s semifinalist and general breakthrough star has been steady lately. Win two matches for every one loss seems to be the way of Ons’ world (a 6-3 6-1 win against Pegula in Dubai is one that probably went under your radar).
We’ll back that again here. Wins over Zhang Shuai and Elise Mertens (assuming Mertens makes it through Kostyuk) would be worthy of a pat on the back but I’m not convinced her forehand survives an onslaught of cross-court attacks from Maria Sakkari.
Two wins, one loss for Jabeur.
Victoria Azarenka.
Victoria Azarenka was fantastic in her run to the Indian Wells’ final last October. She could have walked away with the trophy quite easily.
She’s been a bit subdued lately though. A few decent wins here and there (e.g. got revenge over Badosa in the first-round of Adelaide) can’t be ignored but she gave Brengle a walkover in Doha as she suffered from a left-hip injury.
Question marks over Vika… A couple of wins over lesser opponents potentially but I can see her getting blown off court by Aryna Sabalenka.
You might have noticed I’ve left Elena Rybakina alone (a personal favourite of mine!) - her health is an even bigger question mark than Vika’s. I’ll back her for world domination when she’s fully fit.
Aryna Sabalenka.
Aryna Sabalenka has been impressive lately.
Having been plagued by double faults at the start of the season, the rest of her game had to do a lot of the heavy lifting. Now with the double faults behind her, Sabalenka is hitting her groundstrokes better than ever whilst her serve is holding its own.
Generally early exits are a thing of the past for her with lightweights Paolini and Putintseva unlikely to cause any problems. Difficult one to call confidently against Vika but I’ll give Aryna the edge.
Finally, against Maria Sakkari…
Maria Sakkari.
Maria Sakkari could go underrated at Indian Wells.
Her first-round exit to Golubic last October was a little uncharacteristic but I’d honestly say she’s improved since then. Her form in St. Petersburg and Doha was very impressive, her loss to Kontaveit nothing to feel ashamed of and her loss to Swiatek simply too high a level to match.
Whilst her game could go a little underpowered in Indian Wells (linear hits weakened, serve less important), her ability to adapt has improved since October. She should be able to find a game plan capable of beating everyone in her quarter of the draw - Sabalenka is more of a worry but I trust Sakkari to get to this stage more than the Belarusian so we’re backing Maria.
4th Semifinalist: Maria Sakkari
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Kanepi has won two main draw matches at Indian Wells in her last 10 years at the event.
Turns out she is the bookies’ favourite!
You got 50% (16 of 32) in 3R, not so easy to predict WTA.