Australian Open 2022: Men's Draw Predictions
Jack Edward, Gavin Lang and Alex Gruskin's quarterfinal picks for the Australian Open men's draw in an improvised format.
Skip the intro if you’ve read the women’s predictions!
I had this amazing Australian Open draw prediction podcast episode planned out.
Having prepped solidly, I had a good feeling my co-hosts Gavin Lang and Alex Gruskin were going to deliver - and boy, did they ever. They were witty, intelligent, hilarious - the laughs we shared, the stats we awed at, the players we roasted!
It was such a good episode - no - the best episode we’ve ever recorded.
Then I found out Alex’s preceding technical problems had led to his voice not being recorded for the entirety of the episode.
…
So here I am, typing out the transcript for myself and Gav, opting instead to recall what Alex said in scrappy paraphrased bullet-points. Unfortunately, a lot of Gruskin’s natural charm is missing amidst this text dump1 but I hope you enjoy the feel of it anyway.
Sorry I’m terrible with technology and try to enjoy our men’s singles draw predictions (the women’s will be in an article tomorrow morning).
Top Quarter (Highest-ranked players: Rublev, Berrettini, Norrie, Garin)
Jack: "[assuming Djokovic is out of the tournament] I think the first quarter is gonna be Rublev v Alcaraz. I think Rublev has been handed a bit of a lifeline. Pretty much nobody in his sixteenth is going to be up to the task of beating him - maybe Paul, Tommy Paul’s beat him before but Garin, no way, and the rest, I don’t think so either…
And Alcaraz, no way his power gets discredited. He was just way too good at the US, even better by the end of the year - I thought he was amazing at the Next Gen ATP Finals. I also think Berrettini doesn’t have a 100% chance of getting through Nakashima in the first-round, the backhand match-up maybe swaying a few crucial rallies in the American’s favour.”
Gav: “Yeah I agreed with you. Rublev, Alcaraz, yep. Berrettini for me, he’s still coming back from injury, still not convinced - there are holes in his game that backhand being one. I think Alcaraz does have a more solid game if you compare both - okay, Berrettini has the very powerful serve but if we’re talking about all-round games… Who’s got the better backhand? Alcaraz. Forehand? Just as good I’d say. Tactics? I’d probably go Alcaraz as well.
As for Rublev, I think he’s getting through his section pretty comfortably. He’s been given a bit of a lifeline for that. Rublev Alcaraz for me.”
Alex:
Agreed Rublev had a cushy draw but points out Monfils could be a real threat. With Djokovic gone, best chance he’s had in years to go deep in a Grand Slam.
Thinks the sixteenth of the draw with Alcaraz and Berrettini is loaded. Alex pointed out Cam Norrie, the twelfth seed, has a brutal first-round against Sebi Korda (Jack butted in to say Cam wasn’t winning that one) and that Marton Fuscovics was no given for Alcaraz in the second round (if Fuscovics could down Dusan “the deuce” Lajovic). Also noted Marton had knocked out a seed five times in his last seven Slams.
Mentioned Stefan Kozlov but quickly stopped himself from getting carried away.
Alex really liked the look of PCB at the ATP Cup. Strong advocate for the Spaniard deserving his semifinal spot at the US Open in 2020.
Alex liked a pop quiz to prove a point (love it Alex): Who were the four players to make at least the fourth round of every Slam last year? Jack quickly answered with Berrettini, Djokovic and Zverev… then said Medvedev too (correct!).
Verdict? After a lot cussing and putting down Alcaraz, Alex settled on PCB and Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals!
Jack: Rublev v Alcaraz
Gav: Rublev v Alcaraz
Alex: Paul v PCB
Second Quarter (Zverev, Nadal, Hurkacz, Shapovalov)
Gav: “Zverev, Nadal, that’s my prediction. We know why - Zverev, okay, it’s a difficult section of the draw maybe to get through. At the Slams now though, he’s proven he can get through matches quickly, you know, he’s not dropping as many sets. I think he will win a Slam this year - it’s a matter of when rather than if.
And Rafa. Okay it’s a difficult start, you know, you’ve got Marcos Giron in the first-round but I think he’s got that confidence in him from winning that title last week, he’s had enough practice going into this event. Will he go beyond the quarters? I don’t think so but I think Rafa will make the quarters.”
Jack: “I totally chickened out at the last minute. I had Karatsev down, I thought he was gonna do it again. I changed to Nadal at the last second so I’ve got Nadal and Zverev as well. I actually have Zverev at 50-50 though. Lloyd Harris is massive but I also think Feli Lopez could throw a spanner in the works. Honestly he could take it - after last year when he beat Rublev - oh my god, the way he gets inside some of these guys heads even if they’re top-five in the world… If somebody’s not feeling it on the day and they just don’t have the feel for that horrible lefty slice - I think it could happen! The fourth-round Shapo could be a problem… I’ll stick with Zverev though as the safest bet.
And I think Nadal, he’s got a history of losing to players that should be beating him in Australia BUT he tends to beat everybody else. So I could see him getting through by the skin of his teeth… But would lose to Zverev in the quarters.”
Alex:
Asked if Rafa is even top-five contenders for us (both Jack and Gav agree he’s nowhere near top-five). Alex DID NOT fancy Rafa’s chances of going deeper than quarters. Alex mentioned Karen Khachanov was hitting the ball like a beast in Adelaide - he said Rafa could get beaten by the Russian in the third-round.
Was insanely impressed with the amount of talent in this section. For Zverev, Lloyd Harris would absolutely not be a cakewalk in the third-round and (if he made it to the fourth-round) Reilly Opelka had only been broken by Andy Murray in his four matches played this year.
(Jack mentioned Shapo being a problem for Zverev) Alex wasn’t even sure Shapo was getting through his early rounds. Rune or Kwon in the second-round could be two youngsters hungry for a big win and Opelka in the third could spell trouble.
Hubi Hurkacz is the definition of the modern player. Super tall, amazing serve, ultra-controlled yet aggressive (enough) groundstrokes. (Jack pointed out Rafa has a superb record in first time meetings and that dealing with the Spaniard’s game could be difficult to acclimatise too).
(Jack mentioned he’d love an Andy/Nadal final) Alex laughed in Jack’s face.
Verdict? Alex went uncharacteristically safe in the end and went for Zverev and Nadal. Claimed the semifinal would see Pablo Carreno Busta and Zverev getting the chance to put on a show after their train-wreck of a semifinal at the US Open 2020.
All: Zverev v Nadal
Third Quarter (Tsitsipas, Ruud, Sinner, Bautista Agut)
Jack: “It’s quite clear who I think one of the quarterfinalists will be. I’m not even kidding, I think Murray’s going to get to the quarters. You can have your take on this in a second. Whether he’ll get any further… Absolutely not but realistically he’s the favourite for the first-round against Basilashvili. After his last two matches against the Georgian, I don’t even think he was playing his best (Gav interjected to say he could turn up)… I think he turned up the other day and he got beat. The guy’s peak is phenomenal obviously but I think Andy’s so good at unpicking players like that. Daniel or Barrios Vera in the second - fine. Sinner in the third, okay, obviously this is a huge problem but if you believe hard enough - things happen? It’s doable - he beat him last year in Stockholm. Okay, it was indoors (Andy’s good indoors) and the courts will be faster in Australia. He’s beat him once, he can do it again - I think when Andy gets his eye in against a player, he can be more of a threat the second time round.
So the other quarterfinalist? I think it would be Murray v RBA.“
Gav: “At the start of last year, Sinner wasn’t quite hitting his spots on serve. He’s improved that now. Sort of similar to Alcaraz in that they both have great teams around them, both being able to keep calm and level-headed. Under pressure too he is so good, he can bring out a first-serve like that on a break point, save them in his sleep. It’s only an upward trajectory. That’s why my quarterfinal prediction was actually Sinner against Fritz.
The reason I went for Fritz over RBA - even though the head-to-head is in RBA’s favour, I think Fritz has got that massive first-serve, we saw how well he played in Australia last year. I think RBA - okay, he played well at the ATP Cup but is he going to be able to keep going physically over best-of-five sets? He’s 33, 34 now…
I think Fritz against Sinner. Sinner to beat Murray obviously cause I’m being realistic.”
Alex:
Had a field day bigging up Jannik Sinner. “Though he’s ranked 11 in the world, he’s right up there with the top-four guys to win the event.” Cut through his opponents at the ATP Cup like they hadn’t played tennis before. Could easily find himself in a quarterfinal.
Backs Casper Ruud to make the first fourth-round of his career (but will lose to Sinner). De Minaur won’t be easy but he should come through (Jack disagreed stating home crowd will play a big role). Alex conceded if it wasn’t in Australia, Ruud would definitely be making a fourth-round at some point this year.
Quick to point out that Taro Daniel had had a surprisingly amazing season on serve so far. His ace percentage was ridiculously high for a guy that moves well and he WOULD NOT be as simple for Murray as one might expect.
“Tennis has always been easy for Taylor Fritz. He’s one of those guys that just knows how to finish a point.” Alex thought it would be Fritz’ inability to stay patient in a rally however that could be his demise against RBA.
First person to actually add Tsitsipas to the equation. Tsitsipas had no problems with his tennis at the ATP Cup, it was his physicality and the underlying issues that had been causing him problems. Lost a match to Schwartzman he wouldn’t ordinarily have lost. Easily could go out against Mikhail Ymer, (Jack threw Baez into the mix in the second as threat), Dimitrov in the third too. Not happening for Stef.
Verdict? Alex eventually sided with Gav, opting for Jannik Sinner to beat RBA in the quarterfinals.
Jack: Murray v RBA
Gav: Sinner v Fritz
Alex: Sinner v RBA
Bottom Quarter (Medvedev, FAA, Schwartzman, Isner)
Jack: “Max Cressy is gonna make it through to the fourth-round. The guy has got this swagger, it doesn’t matter who he plays - obviously he could get knocked out just as easily in the early rounds - but I think he could do it on a few dice rolls. If Medvedev were to play Max Cressy I would be so SO worried. Just how far back Medvedev is in the court - serve-and-volley, if he starts dropping it short on the volley - that could be really difficult for Medvedev. That said, I think he’ll get through it, I just wanted to mention he could be a horrible match-up.
But Medvedev in the quarters and, yeah, I think it’s gonna be FAA. It would be Cilic in the fourth-round and I think he’ll beat Cilic (an ooft noise from Gav). For the record Alex, Gav is a huge Cilic fan - the guy has literally got a monopoly card, do not pass go, go straight to the fourth-round. Guaranteed qualifier in the first two rounds and then Gianluca Mager the highest-ranked player possible in the third.”
Gav: “Yeah Cilic isn’t making the quarters for me (shock and horror noises from Jack). Those horrific forehands under pressure against Kokkinakis today (Jack says why are you expecting to see something different - Alex chuckles - Gav continues) - I think FAA will beat Cilic in the big pressure moments. It’s his time, I think he’ll win his first title this year. People keep saying 0-8 in finals is a negative - I think it’s a positive, he’s actually made eight finals, far better than his countryman Shapovalov. Only 22 years old, he’s more consistent than Shapovalov.
It’s FAA versus Medvedev for me. That Cressy Medvedev match will be interesting but you’ve got to remember Medvedev is a great tactician. If he’s struggling after a poor first set, he’s got the ability to change his tactics mid-match - not a lot of the top pros can do that. Medvedev FAA for me.”
Alex:
(Jack mentioned Ruusuvuori and Dan Evans as other potential threats) Alex commended the Ruusuvuori shout out and agreed he could catch FAA cold.
Alex dispelled the threat of Goffin (injured), Popyrin (a poor man’s Kyle Edmund to giggles from Jack and Gav) and Isner (big serve easily countered by Medvedev).
Made sure not to forget about Kyrgios (possible Medvedev second round and could always be dangerous) and Humbert (rematch of the ATP Cup v Medvedev could be an epic). Also threw Rinderknech into the mix as he reached the final in Adelaide and used to be a collegiate tennis player (Alex is heavily involved in the scene).
Verdict? Alex berated himself for going with the mainstream option but had to side with Medvedev and FAA. Jack pointed out making a Slam semifinal and quarterfinal for FAA last year would be very telling for this year. Alex added Medvedev v FAA would likely be the most exciting of any of the quarterfinals played.
All: Medvedev v FAA
Winners
Jack: “Medvedev… I wish it was more exciting but… Medvedev. Apart from Cressy and Humbert, I’m not that worried. I think he could roll to the final after that.”
Gav: “100% agreed. Medvedev.”
Alex: Thinks this is Zverev’s time to step forward (added the disclaimer at the start of the pod on his domestic abuse allegations). Jack pointed his 0-13 record against top-10 players over best-of-five sets. Alex pooh-poohed Jack’s stat believing Zverev will take advantage of a nice open route to the final.
Jack: Medvedev
Gav: Medvedev
Alex: Zverev
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We’ll have Alex on in the future FOR CERTAIN - he was fantastic!
It's been fun reading the predictions + analysis and the cherry on top is actual winner being Rafa 🥳🥰