How Alexander Zverev beat Novak Djokovic at the 2021 ATP Finals
To win his second ATP Finals title, Alexander Zverev had to defeat Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in consecutive matches. Here's an analysis of how he stepped up his game to beat the world #1.
On Sunday, Alexander Zverev1 was crowned champion at the Nitto ATP Finals.
To get there, he defeated the two best players in the world, Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic, becoming the fourth player to defeat the world #1 and #2 in the semis and the final of the year-end championship2. It was also his sixth title of the year, the most of anyone this season, improving his record in finals to 6-0 in 2021.
It’s been an incredible second half of the season for Zverev who has gone 31-4 since Wimbledon, picking up four of his six titles in this time.
In what areas did the German step up his game?
Here’s my thoughts on his semifinal match against 2021’s best player.
ATP Finals Semifinal: Alexander Zverev defeats Novak Djokovic 7-6 (4) 4-6 6-3
Zverev had denied Djokovic a chance at Olympic Gold in Tokyo - in Turin, he was there to deny the Serb once more becoming the only man to inflict two defeats on the world #1 this year.
Yet, this match had a different feel to it - Zverev wasn’t forced into redlining his game, he didn’t have to hit 41 groundstroke winners to 14 unforced errors to get the W.
Instead, he played the most solid match of his career against Djokovic.
The Second Serve 2.0 (sort of…)
Throughout their rivalry, Zverev’s second serve has been his Achilles’.
Bar their first meeting in 2017, Zverev has never won more than 55% of his second serve points in their rivalry. Djokovic has always had the ability to go deep and pacey down the middle of the court against the exceptionally-slower-than-the-first second serve, immediately putting Zverev on the back foot, or he’s had the tolerance to withstand Zverev from the baseline.
In this match, the world #3 put on a serving showcase winning 63% of his second serve points.
This isn’t surprising given his level of play throughout the second half of the year - he’s been able to improve all of his serving stats as the year has progressed.
Probably the most significant stat - that also happens to be the most independent of surface - is the dip in double faults. This dip alone contributes to the majority of the 4.4% difference in second serve points won.
In his match against Djokovic? Just one double fault.
Okay, he’s making more of those painful 70mph second serves than he used to but I’d argue it’s not the improvements to his second serve that’s posting him better numbers, rather it’s the improvements he’s made to his first serve.
Zverev’s first serve is becoming sturdier as the years go on. He’s putting more and more first serves in the court whilst able to hit 130mph+ regularly (5.1% increase in first serves in) - this is making him less nervous going for those first-serves-disguised-as-second-serves and it’s taking more pressure off of arguably his biggest weakness.
Zverev’s mantra? Improve the first serve and the second serve will follow.
Winning Extended Rallies
Those 70mph second serves are still there though - how does he get away with these against the best returner in the world?
Well, having the ability to hit a 130mph+ second serve consistently keeps your opponent from edging up to the baseline (Novak hit only five forced errors using his return and zero winners) - exactly what Zverev had in mind.
“Once Novak gets into a rhythm on the return, he's very difficult, so I tried different things… I would have been happy to double fault at times, I did not want to let him get into a rhythm.”
So when Zverev did hit a 70mph serve, Djokovic wasn’t ready for it - from there, more often than not, a long rally ensued.
Historically, in most of their matches there has been very little to separate the two in rallies over nine shots or Djokovic has won a fair majority. Zverev was able to make a major impact in this department in Turin.
Zverev showed incredible rally temperament against Djokovic, arguably his most tactically balanced baseline performance ever over the course of their head-to-head. He hit over 40% of his groundstrokes down the middle of the court, returning down the middle frequently too, hitting primarily to safe targets, giving Novak zero angles to work with.
When he got the right shot he took his chance but he rarely forced the issue. Impatience has often been a problem in their match-up - instead, he showed improvements in his defensive play and movement, taking his time to build the point from the baseline.
Despite the above GIFs being slightly unflattering, this win is made even more impressive given Djokovic’s level throughout the match. He had a set point in the first set (Zverev saved it with an unreturnable first serve) and saved a slew of his own break points with clutch serve-and-volley plays.
The middle GIF above shows Djokovic losing only his second first serve point when he served to his opponent’s forehand throughout the entirety of the tournament (the first was a missed overhead against Zverev).
Djokovic was serving incredibly well, yet Zverev managed to win one of the most important points of the match off of this invulnerable serve, on his weaker return wing.
Never has Zverev balanced aggression and patience so well, eventually winning by beating the Serb at his own game.
Is Zverev Ready For A Slam?
Hats off to Zverev for looking consistently level-headed against a relatively in-form Djokovic.
Zverev outlasted Djokovic from the baseline in the longer rallies.
Over the last five years, Roger and Rafa have discovered how difficult it is to find answers to the modern version of Djokovic on a hard court using their preferred styles of play.
The most consistently successful3 have found a way to fight fire with fire - Zverev took the risk of hyper-aggression out of his strategy (see the Olympics) and opted for a more patient and assured style of play.
Zverev backed up his baseline play with an improved first serve, putting more first serves in the court.
This allowed him to find more first-serves-as-second serves and meant he dealt with adversity far less often than he has against Djokovic this year4.
What next for Zverev?
Yes, he’s 37-30 against top-10 players over best of three and 0-13 over best of five but this argument surely has an expiry date.
The holes in Zverev’s game are being patched up with every passing week on tour. Will these cracks reappear against a quality player over the course of a longer match…
… or is it only a matter of time before Zverev takes the next step?
Surely the latter?
See you here next week for the Davis Cup x
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I don’t wish to write this article without addressing the domestic abuse allegations against Alexander Zverev. I have read and respect Olga Sharypova’s account of the events.
With Zverev likely to be at the top of men’s tennis for a long time, however, and with the allegations still standing as such (purely allegations), I have decided to go ahead with the article reviewing the art rather than the artist. If any irrefutable evidence comes to light in the future then I won’t be writing about him.
After Lendl in 1982 (bt. Connors and McEnroe), Edberg in 1989 (bt. Lendl and Becker) and Agassi in 1990 (bt. Becker and Edberg).
Zverev also becomes only the third man to defeat Medvedev and Djokovic at the same tournament after Hyeon Chung at the 2018 Australian Open and Kyle Edmund at the 2018 Madrid Masters.
Rafa hasn’t beaten Djokovic on a hard court since 2013 (though he actually wins the majority of the longer rallies, Djokovic wins too many shorter points) and Federer has lost five of their last six matches on HC (though historically he’s had more success when Novak was weaker on serve).
Since 2016, players with a stylistically similar game, like Medvedev, Pablo Carreno Busta and Roberto Bautista Agut, have given Djokovic a hard time (lol) on a hard court. Excluding the US Open incident, Djokovic has gone a collective 7-7 against these players on HC in this time.
Break points saved by Zverev in rivalry with Djokovic:
ATP Finals 2021: 3/4
US Open 2021: 3/9
Olympics 2021: 5/8
Australian Open 2021: 3/9
ATP Cup 2021: 2/6