Paula Badosa wins the Indian Wells Masters: Tournament Analysis
In her run to the title at Indian Wells, Paula Badosa defeated four top-20 players and denied Victoria Azarenka glory in a sublime finale - we explore how her strengths led her to victory.
It was only a matter of time.
Though she started the year ranked #70 in the world, Paula Badosa has been knocking on the door all season.
After announcing herself with a solid quarterfinal win over the world #1 in Charleston, Badosa backed this up with a semifinal appearance at the Madrid Masters, leaving Barbora Krejcikova and Belinda Bencic in her wake. She won her following tournament in Belgrade emphatically and lost a very tight quarterfinal to Tamara Zidansek at Roland Garros.
As the clay season drew to a close, the wins slowed but ultimately kept on coming. She made a tidy round of 16 showing at Wimbledon and made it to the quarterfinals of Cincinatti, defeating Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina along the way.
No wonder her ascent up the rankings has been swift - Badosa has shown she is more than comfortable trading blows with the best players in the world, on any surface.
At Indian Wells, she defeated Angelique Kerber, Coco Gauff, Ons Jabeur and Krejcikova to increase her record against top-20 players this year to 10-31 (excluding Victoria Azarenka who is currently ranked #32!).
Today, we’re taking a look at how Badosa came through her last two matches against Jabeur and Victoria Azarenka by exploring the strengths in her game.
Best start now as we’ll all need to grow accustomed to her game in the coming years!
Indian Wells Masters Semifinal: Paula Badosa defeats Ons Jabeur 6-3 6-3
Both enjoying standout seasons, Jabeur and Badosa faced off in their first and second Masters semifinals, respectively, playing for a prestigious spot in the Indian Wells final.
The tiniest advantage in experience made all the difference as Badosa assuredly came through a rollercoaster match against Jabeur.
Here’s what stood out…
Paula Badosa’s Strength #1: Steady But Explosive
Perhaps the most exciting aspect of Badosa’s game?
She gets a ton of power on her shots but isn’t particularly prone to an error. She was incredibly stable against Jabeur, able to pepper the lines with fantastic shot-making but never seemingly taking on too much risk.
Jabeur baseline winners/forced errors to unforced errors: 28-27 = +1
Badosa baseline winners/forced errors to unforced errors: 28-8 = +20
A stark contrast between the two…
Okay, so the Tunisian’s forehand can often go MIA, which is part of the reason for Jabeur’s number being so low comparatively (15 FH UEs). Credit to Badosa, however, who barely put a foot wrong from the baseline the entire match.
There’s a steadiness to her game that is very difficult to break down. Similar to Iga Swiatek, Badosa hits her forehand with a lot of topspin, allowing her to hit a big ball without looking desperate.
This forehand is the main reason she has been so dangerous on clay this year, sporting a 17-3 record on the surface. It was perfect for the painfully slow conditions at Indian Wells.
Where Badosa sets herself apart, however, is in her ability to flatten out the forehand.
This variation in her groundstrokes is what led her to the round of 16 at Wimbledon, looking a little more natural on the surface than some of her peers i.e. Swiatek2.
This ability to add pace in different ways is terrifying for Badosa’s opponents - the Spaniard could be an an all-surface monster by this time next year if she masters the flat forehand…
Paula Badosa’s Strength #2: Lanky But Agile
It’s no secret Jabeur is the queen of the drop shot - surely this would be a recipe for success against Badosa who towers at 5 ft 11’ in stature?
Wrong! Jabeur won only 8/17 drop shot attempts, largely due to the superb movement of Badosa.
Not only is her movement a massive plus, the spin on her shots also allows her to hook low-sitting balls back into the court (again, though she lost her match to Jabeur at Wimbledon, Swiatek was able to do the same thing against her drop shots, winning the majority of the points where they were played).
Jabeur played 14 drop shots in the first set - by the second set, she’d accepted they weren’t going to win her the match, playing only three for the remainder of the match.
Powerful but safe.
Good wingspan but deceptively speedy.
What else does Badosa have up her sleeve?
Indian Wells Masters Final: Paula Badosa defeats Victoria Azarenka 7-6 (5) 2-6 7-6 (2)
The two-time champion against the next generation, both possessing aggressive styles of play but with plenty of differences at the same time.
Paula Badosa’s win over Victoria Azarenka had plenty of hype surrounding it and, boy, did it deliver.
It took over three hours to separate the two, Azarenka even up 30-0 serving for the match at one point, but eventually Badosa emerged victorious.
Here’s how Paula denied Vika a record-breaking third title.
Paula Badosa’s Strength #3: Trading Backhands with the Best
In her semifinal against Jelena Ostapenko, Azarenka’s strategy had been simple - overheat the backhand and ride out any ferocious peaks in the Latvian’s game, assured that consistency would trump power in the long run.
Against Badosa, this strategy was not employable.
Badosa’s backhand is class. She makes very few unforced errors on this wing in general - 18 against Azarenka which was about 1 out of every 12 backhands struck - yet she is still able to attack off this wing with aplomb.
Badosa baseline backhand winners/forced errors to unforced errors: 24-18 = +6
Vika baseline backhand winners/forced errors to unforced errors: 17-15 = +2
To out-hit one of the best backhands in the world off this wing is no easy feat.
Don’t get me wrong - the Azarenka cross-court backhand into this wing was often devastating, testament to its greatness. There is definitely still a little room for improvement when Badosa is hitting a defensive backhand out wide.
But, though the forehand is still the bigger of the two weapons, that’s just it - it is a weapon and is likely to only get better in the coming years.
Frightening stuff from the eventual champion.
Paula Badosa’s Strength #4: Mentality of a Champion
Like so many of the next generation3, Badosa is fully aware of the importance of the mental side of the game.
“I always thought that tennis is 80% of mental. I think when you're in these rounds, of course the racquet is important, how you play, it's very important. I think it's a little bit more important how you manage all the nerves in the important moments.”
Just take a look at this set point in the first set tiebreak.
Obviously winning two tiebreaks, including a deciding set tiebreak4, against Azarenka does some speaking for itself.
But perhaps less apparent - Badosa was fully aware of how the match had been shifting and changed her patterns of play to suit.
She had served almost exclusively to the forehand in the first, something Azarenka had been dealing with more easily as the match wore on - Vika had finished 63% of the second serve points she’d received to her forehand in one or two swings of the racket in the first set.
In the second set, she’d won two points to Azarenka’s 13 that had went 5+ shots.
How did she remedy these problems?
In the second set, she started to mix up the serve. Though she was struggling to win the longer rallies, Azarenka didn’t win a single point on return in one or two of her own shots.
In the third set, Badosa kept Azarenka on her toes with her serve but also ramped up the aggression on the +1 shot at the appropriate times, winning more service points in one or two swings of her own racket than the first and second sets combined (10 in the first, 6 in the second, 20 in the third).
To summarise, Badosa is able to ramp up her level of play in the important moments, possessing incredible court-craft and massive power to boot, which requires incredible focus.
At the same time, she has the awareness to know when to change her game up - either her and her coach have talked through several back-up plans to adjust her tactics or she is very strategically intuitive and feels the pulse of the game better than most.
Either way, this match showed that Badosa has mental toughness and adaptability for days.
Superb stuff under immense pressure!
How far can Badosa go?
Booming baseliner.
Strategically shrewd.
Mentally mighty.
Paula Badosa has shown she has what it takes to beat the very best in slower conditions, earning the title this week with some insanely impressive performances.
She has already shown she can be successful on other surfaces but, realistically, where is her ceiling? Surely the sky’s the limit for her so what could be a potential roadblock?
Well, for 5,11’ in height, Badosa serves well but not fantastically, especially on the second serve. Though she wins a lot of first serve points by setting up groundstrokes, her ace rate is around 5.1% this year (half of Ash Barty’s ace rate).
And she’ll likely be devotedly working on her second serve, 11 double faults rearing their ugly head against Azarenka - the only person in the top-50 to hit more double faults per second serve played than her this season was Camila Giorgi. This, along with an average delivery, leave Badosa at 43% second serve points won, 43rd among the top 50.
Finally, her defensive work, though definitely impressive, could do with a spot of improvement and could be exploited on a faster surface.
These points, or at least her serve, could make the difference in hard-court matches to come. I have no doubt she’ll be working hard to improve all of these aspects of her game, however, and if she succeeds in doing that…
Well, as I say, the sky’s the limit for Paula Badosa.
Congrats on winning your first Masters title!
New balls please!
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Only Barty and Sakkari have more wins at 14-1 and 11-7, respectively.
Swiatek also made the round of 16 but looked more easily rushed on her forehand than Badosa.
Might as well have made a Swiatek comparison here for the 10th time this article!
Azarenka had won 8 of her last 9 deciding set tiebreaks going into this match.