Hubert Hurkacz: Improved Player Analysis
Hurkacz won his third title of the season in Metz last week. I've taken a look at how the improvements he's made to his first serve can be attributed to his success.
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With my shameless pitch out the way, whether you’re fully up to speed or not, all you really need to know is Hubert Hurkacz won the title in Metz. It’s his third singles title of the year, after winning in Delray Beach and Miami, and it’s the fourth title of his career.
From one title at the start of the year to four by the end of September, not to mention one of them was a Masters title, plus he made the semifinals at Wimbledon having not been past the third round of a Grand Slam previously…
It’s safe to say Hubi has improved his game somewhat.
What’s given him the edge in 2021? With the help of his coach, Craig Boynton, Hurkacz’s first serve is looking more lethal than ever.
Let’s take a closer look…
Hurkacz’s Ace Percentage
First off, let’s get the Hurkacz serve stats on the table.
A lot of numbers there but they all add up to a 3.3% increase in service games won (and that’s the bottom line at the end of the day, right?). That’s four more games for every 122 played - doesn’t sound like much but I’m sure you’ve been around the block enough to know small boosts like this can make the biggest differences!
Maybe Hurkacz is better from the baseline? Maybe his net-play is better than it used to be?
Whilst this is probably true (and is likely a good reason for his second serve percentages increasing), the most telling stat, the one that isolates his serve, is his ace percentage - a 2% increase is just about equivalent to serving an ace every 11 points in 2019 to every 9 points in 2021.
Within the top 50 in the world, this put Hurkacz from 15th most aces struck in 2019 to 10th this year1.
No other shot factors into ace percentage - this is a clear indication that Hurkacz is serving better. With this in mind, which aspects of his serve have actually improved?
Hurkacz’s Service Speed
At the start of the year (back when I was an analysing noob), I wrote a piece for Last Word On Tennis on Hurkacz’s title win over Sebastian Korda in Delray Beach.
“Hurkacz hit an average first serve speed of 114.6mph, perhaps slightly below average for being 6.5” in height, but still quick enough to make an impact. When he did take some speed off of the serve, [however], his placement was often impeccable, even hitting a 99mph ace out wide on the deuce court.”
I’d never been blown away by Hurkacz’s service speed, having seen quite a lot of him in 2019 - it’s always an area I felt he could improve for being such a lanky Lenny2.
Well, he’s been working on it.
Using the ATP’s Serve Tracker3, I’ve worked out Hurkacz’s approximate first serve speed from both seasons.
Though these speeds are to be taken with a pinch of salt due to a limited database and the odd suspect serve speed, these numbers still provide a good indication that Hurkacz’s serve has a bit more pop on it now than it did in 2019.
Generally, service speed is not an area where micro-changes alone make the biggest differences, even adding 3mph to your wide serve in the ad court. It’s only when you get to Isner-Raonic-Karlovic4 levels of speed that you can rely on this alone to win you more free points.
Don’t get me wrong - it helps slightly! But, as was the case in Delray Beach, it’s the placement of the serve that does the real damage for Hubi.
Hurkacz’s Service Placement
If you watched any of Hurkacz’s semifinal run at Wimbledon, you’ll know he served like a dream - in fact, he didn’t drop serve once in his first three matches.
Here’s what his coach, Craig Boynton, had to say about his serving at Wimbledon:
“He’s been locked in and dialled in on serve. He’s got a very, very good serve. His serving percentages have been above average for him, they’ve been very good. He’s been hitting his spots and it’s grass. You get hot on grass and a lot of times guys get broken because they’re missing first serves, and his first-serve percentage has been pretty good.”
Notice Craig alludes to placement rather than speed. That’s the reason Hurkacz’s serve has always been decent - and it’s the reason it’s been exceptional this season.
A lot of numbers again but a really simple takeaway - on the whole, Hurkacz has been more accurate with his first serves than he has been in the past.
Take that 56.0% in the ad-T as an example. That’s very accurate - for comparison, the top four players in the world could only land 43% (Djokovic), 45% (Medvedev), 54% (Tsitsipas) and 36% (Zverev) of their first serves in this area 2021.
The increased accuracy of his deuce serve out wide and his ad serve down the T in particular perhaps suggest he has improved his slice serve. This is backed up by the two graphics below.
For a right-hander, an effective serve into these two areas is easier to execute as the ball naturally swings away from the opponent.
From the above graphics, we can see that not only is Hurkacz serving more frequently to these areas, he is winning more points per serve made than he did in 2019 - in fact, he’s served wide in the deuce court more often than any member of the top eight this year.
His numbers have dropped a little on his deuce-T serve and, though he is delivering the serve well to the ad-wide area, his win percentage in this area has barely increased - though these numbers are still impressive, perhaps there is some room for improvement, potentially looking to increase his speed even more on that ad-wide serve to accommodate for the lack of natural slice on the ball.
Still, good numbers all round in terms of placement for the Pole who’s playing into his strengths on serve!
Hubert Hurkacz: Improved Player Analysis
Let’s recap.
Hubi is winning more service games.
One of the most significant reasons why?
He is serving more aces than ever.
How?
Hubi may be delivering a slightly bigger first serve, however, this doesn’t appear to be the catalyst behind his success - ad-wide was the only area where Hurkacz notably bettered his serve speed from 2019 and his win-percentage there didn’t accordingly increase.
It’s his serve placement that’s winning him matches, getting closer to the sidelines than he has in previous seasons. He is utilising his more natural service motion more frequently to win free points, seemingly having practiced flattening and slicing it to these spots to the nth degree, increasing his percentages in both the ad-T and deuce-wide serves.
All of these factors added up to a delightful Moselle Open victory last weekend which now takes him to #8 in the ATP Race To Turin, putting him well and truly in contention for making the cut there5.
Beware those who reach the ATP Finals - the terrifying Hubert Hurkacz could be lying in wait!
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Hurkacz versus the top eight in the world’s ace % in 2021:
Hubert Hurkacz - 11.2%, 10th
Novak Djokovic - 7.9%, 24th
Daniil Medvedev - 13.2%, 7th
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.6%, 21st
Alexander Zverev - 12.4%, 9th
Andrey Rublev - 10.0%, 16th
Rafael Nadal - 5.0%, 40th
Matteo Berrettini - 13.5%, 6th
Dominic Thiem - 6.4%, 32nd
According to Twitter-er, Liv K’s pupils, he looks like a Leonard!
The ATP’s Serve & Return Tracker aggregates data from ATP World Tour Masters 1000s, the Nitto ATP Finals and the Next Gen ATP Finals. Data from select ATP 500 and 250 events has also been included since 2019. So - DISCLAIMER - this means that Grand Slam data and some other events are not included in the database - which is a shame given how well Hubi served at Wimbledon this year!
Nonetheless, it’s a decent barometer of the serving patterns and trends of Hurkacz.
Isner, Raonic and Karlovic averaged 133mph, 137mph and 131mph respectively on the ad-wide serve - even if the averages are skewed a little (these are very high average speeds…), I can confidently say their serving speeds are pretty far ahead of Hurkacz’s.
Casper Ruud is in the spot below and him and hasn’t quite established himself on a hard-court yet - with only hard-court events to be played for the rest of the year, things could be coming up Hurkacz!