Under the Spotlight: Emma Raducanu at the US Open
At only 18 years old, Emma Raducanu's run to the US Open quarterfinals has been extremely impressive. Can she go one step further or is beating Belinda Bencic a step too far?
Emma Raducanu is through to the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam after beating Shelby Rogers in a one-sided affair.
Raducanu joins a prestigious group of players1 in making back-to-back fourth rounds at Grand Slam level on her debut, she’s only dropped 31 games in seven consecutive matches, she’s going to win the US Open, she’s going to be the best British player since Virginia Wade *gasps for air*
Woah, woah, woah, let’s just reign it in a little.
Expectations inflated by hyperbolic tennis media can dim the light of a rising star (take Naomi Osaka as my case in point).
I’d also be doing you, the discerning reader, no favours in spoon-feeding you baseless exaggerations.
At only 18 years old, sure, Raducanu is making strides in the right direction but I’d like to give you a very pragmatic account of the tennis she has played in her US Open journey so far and the tennis she’ll have to play if she hopes to beat Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals.
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Let’s get started!
Emma Raducanu Strengths at the US Open
Okay, so the good news first before you accuse me of negative-Nancy-ing.
There have been a lot more strengths in Raducanu’s game than there have been areas for improvement. She’s done exceptionally well to get to this stage and deserves heaps of praise.
Here’s the quality in her game so far.
Strengths: Quality from the Baseline
The most obvious strength of Raducanu is in her groundstrokes.
In all of her matches so far, Raducanu has looked a cut above her opponent in terms of ball-striking ability, able to exchange rally balls with depth on either wing before finding a couple of aggressive-enough shots to put her up in the rally.
We’re not talking Sabalenka levels of aggression or anything - Raducanu is extremely steady and has a forehand that puts her a few leagues ahead of all of the opponents she’s faced so far. She can attack using her backhand too but it’s the forehand that does most of the damage.
Take her third-round opponent, Sara Sorribes Tormo, the queen of extremely steady, able to kill her opponents with consistency. This match was a very good indicator of how easily Raducanu can generate her own pace from the baseline with constant control, forcing an error or hitting a winner using her groundstrokes 32 times during the match. That’s 2.5 winning groundstrokes per game (SST hit a winning groundstroke 0.6 times per game).
Though the backhand could be used more often as a weapon, Raducanu’s baseline game is incredibly technically sound, shades of her idol in Simona Halep on the backhand in there and a potentially even heavier forehand than the Romanian.
Strengths: Consistency on Serve and Return
The steadiness of Raducanu’s game translates to all facets of her game.
Raducanu has landed 74% of her first serves in her seven matches so far (this is a bit of a double-edged sword but I’ll talk about the positives of this stat first).
For context, this number is higher than any individual top 50 player’s average first serve-in rate at the US Open for the last two years (e.g. Angelique Kerber was second with a combined average of just under 74% from her 2019 and 2020 appearances at the US Open).
Take her fourth-round opponent, Shelby Rogers, a dangerous opponent that was playing her third consecutive fourth-round at the US Open. Rogers was having a nightmare match, really struggling to maintain an extended rally. Raducanu was able to press harder as the nightmare continued, missing four first serves in the second set (88% in), rarely allowing Rogers into a service game with any look-ins on second serve.
Raducanu’s service speed was maintained, her serves never really looking attackable against a shaky Shelby. A steady first serve is brilliant to have against an opponent who is feeling the pressure of the moment.
Where Raducanu has done well with her serve, she has excelled on return.
In particular, her ability to neutralise the first serve of her opponent has been outstanding. Raducanu’s depth on return puts her in the running on a lot of return points. Over her seven matches, she has won 51.3% of her first serve return points - the tournament average tournament is 34.5%. Even if you don’t dream about stats at night, you’re probably aware the 16.8% discrepancy between the two numbers is pretty startling2.
To boot, Raducanu blends her rhythmic, deep returns with aggressive forehand returns to keep her opponents on their toes.
She doesn’t overdo it with aggression though - Raducanu’s return technique is simple, repeatable and reliable.
Emma Raducanu’s Areas for Improvement at the US Open
Not weaknesses per se - every area of Raducanu’s all-rounded game is worthy of a spot in the top 100 in the world.
I want to highlight the areas of Raducanu’s game that potentially could do with a little improvement - Belinda Bencic may be able to exploit these areas more easily than her previous opponents.
Here’s what my inner realist thinks.
Areas for Improvement: Accuracy on Serve
At 5 ft 7 inch stature, Raducanu’s serve certainly packs a bit of a punch.
She doesn’t hit an alarming amount of aces, however, a generally accurate (but not completely concrete) barometer of how easily Raducanu is able to win free points using her serve.
The tournament average ace rate3 is 5.3% - Raducanu’s ace rate is 4.8%, just under three a match. Despite being pretty comfortable in all of her matches so far, Raducanu has not won a huge amount of points through first serve accuracy alone.
Given the high amount of first serves she’s putting in the court, one could argue she could afford to take on a bit more risk with this shot. Maybe she hasn’t felt the need thus far but against a top-20 opponent like Bencic (and easily one of the best returners in the game), passiveness on serve ain’t gonna cut the mustard.
Take a look at the tournament stats the pair have compiled thus far.
Bencic has had tougher opponents so far but has covered her serve better than Raducanu has. Her ace rate is also superior at 7.3% so it’s not a stretch to say the players’ respective abilities to place the serve has made some difference for sure.
Despite Bencic’s higher double fault rate (3.1% to 5.0%), they are practically identical in second serve points won, again an indication that Bencic’s willingness to take more risks on serve pays off for her.
Bencic is used to serving under pressure and has a little more quality to her technique. This could be all it takes to tip the scales in Wednesday’s match.
Areas for Improvement: Fitness
This area for improvement is more observational than stat-based so I’m more than willing to be proven wrong.
In her second-round qualifying match, Raducanu struggled in the heat. Her opponent, Mariam Bolkvadze, roped her into some exhausting rallies that left her hunched over. She did very well to recover with some aggressive play, limiting lengthy rallies from thereon out.
Raducanu’s ability to react by shortening the rallies is commendable and Bencic isn’t one for grinding out point after point so my worries here could be completely unwarranted. However, if it’s a particularly hot day, if the heat is stifling, if Bencic is aware of all of the above and looks to take advantage and if Raducanu struggles to catch her breath - then there could be a problem.
A lot of ifs there though.
Emma Raducanu vs Belinda Bencic
Emma Raducanu is a player of rich quality. She’s proven that she’s something special (kudos to her mental form also, which I haven’t touched on too much) and that she could make a real impact in her career.
At this point in her career, however, beating Belinda Bencic is a tall, tall order. The reigning Olympic champion is in fine form and her game suits the conditions. The shot that will really take Raducanu by surprise is the backhand - she may not have seen anything like it in her career so far.
Raducanu may struggle to win the shorter rallies, her serve likely to be returned more times than in her previous matches. Here’s how I’m hoping she can turn that around:
Raducanu takes the initiative on return, especially when she gets opportunities on her forehand.
Raducanu takes a few more risk on her first serve and her second serve (Raducanu second serve was directed almost exclusively to the body in all seven of her matches).
Keep doing what you’re doing from the baseline otherwise Emma…
On a quick side note, Raducanu seems to be getting used to her nerves on the big stage. In her match against Rogers, Raducanu started nervously and was able to settle into the match, a decent indication her fourth-round at Wimbledon is in the distant past. Raducanu was clearly delighted with how she dealt with the occasion.
“To play on Ashe for the first time, I think it was a little bit of a nervy experience in the beginning and I’m just really proud of myself how I managed to settle and regroup and find a level at the end that took me to the win.”
So yeah, I have faith nerves won’t be an issue.
It’ll be tough!
But with expectations slightly tempered, whatever happens, let’s hope we see Emma Raducanu having fun out there and giving it her best shot.
See you tomorrow!
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Chris Evert, Jennifer Capriati and Monica Seles.
Take this number with a pinch of salt: Raducanu’s numbers are slightly skewed by virtue of having played slower than average servers (e.g. SST) and/or bad servers on the day (e.g. Shelby Rogers).
The number of aces hit per service points played.