Kei Nishikori: Player Analysis
An overview of the home nation's hero, Kei Nishikori, covering his journey to the Olympics, his matches so far and determining his chances against Novak Djokovic on Thursday.
Hello readers!
Having recorded a rather broad preview of the Olympics earlier this week (here’s the podcast), I thought I would narrow my focus to one player for this article.
A man on the comeback trail, the only former Olympic medallist left (besides Novak) in either the men’s or women’s singles draws and given he is the host nation’s last singles tennis player standing, Kei Nishikori is today’s topic of discussion.
We’ll be exploring how Nishikori earned himself a quarterfinal match-up with Djokovic and will be exploring his chances against the Golden Slam contender.
行くぞ!
Nishikori’s Road to a third-straight Olympic Singles Quarterfinal
Injuries and Adaptation
Nishikori’s tennis has suffered due to injuries for a while now.
After withdrawing from the US Open in 2017 with a wrist injury, he was still able to find his highest level at times during 2018, accruing enough points to reach the ATP Finals. In 2019, however, after the US Open, an elbow injury left Nishikori sidelined for over a year. He arguably hasn’t found the consistent level of tennis he has been looking for since then.
Part of the reason for this may be due to the changes Nishikori has made to his game. Under the tutelage of former doubles #1, Max Mirnyi, Nishikori has altered his serve so as not to exacerbate the injury - though it is taking pressure off his elbow, his serve statistics for this year have changed.
Clearly the serve isn’t winning him as many free points as it used to as he is losing 6.4% less first serve points this year compared to his career average. For context of how poor 64.1% is, this ranks him 148th on first serves won this year.
On the other hand, Nishikori is getting a higher percentage of first serves in on average than any other year in his career - still the 6.4% drop off is huge and will need to be reduced if he hopes to beat the best in the world.
Whilst Nishikori’s first serve stats have gotten worse on the whole, his second serve stats have actually slightly improved. This is due to a combination of a heavier second serve and Nishikori still being a nightmare to deal with from the baseline.
Finally, his return points won percentage has also dipped drastically in 2021 (39.5% career average to 37.1% in 2021). In his career, he ranks 8th of active players on second serve return points won - this year, he is ranked a meagre 44th.
One stat that jumped out at me, however, in the midst of all this - though Nishikori is winning 2.4% less return points on average, he is winning only 0.1% less break points on average. The Japanese star is still one of the most dangerous players on return under pressure and can often find a hot shot when required.
Now you know how Nishikori has been playing going into the Olympics, let’s see how he’s done so far…
Olympics Round of 64: Kei Nishikori defeats Andrey Rublev 6-3 6-4
An important milestone in the Nishikori comeback story?
Nishikori snapped a 10-match losing streak to top 10 players by defeating Andrey Rublev in the first round of the Olympics.
There were some very encouraging signs for Nishikori in this match.
Second serve accuracy and weight
Nishikori frequently loaded his second serve into the Rublev body whilst keeping it on the backhand side to prevent the Russian from getting up in the point - four second serves even went unreturned!
Nishikori was able to find the Rublev backhand on second serve over 70% of the time despite serving close to the body, staving off the first strike from his opponent. By stifling Rublev’s return, Nishikori was able to step into the court to finish the point quickly, finishing the match with 71% of his second serve points won1 and winning 80% on his first, second or third shot.
Seriously impressive stuff from the former world #4.
Aggressive Returning
It’s really good to see Nishikori can still light up his return. Of the 19 points Nishikori won on return, 12 were won in the 0-4 shot rally length (no double faults from Rublev).
Just take a look at this game mid-way through the first set showcasing the aggression Nishikori can play with on return - down 30-15, Nishikori sprung to life in three consecutive points.
This sort of level suggests Nishikori can still tap into his old returning form, even against quality players like Rublev.
As the stats above suggest, however, Nishikori struggles doing this consistently, not just on the biggest points.
Forehand Dominance
In the blistering conditions of Tokyo, the ball flies.
This could have played directly into Rublev’s forehand, however, Nishikori’s own forehand wasn’t giving Rublev many first-strike opportunities. Nishikori hit 21 winners or forced an error using his forehand to just six unforced errors - Rublev went 16-10 in the same department.
Nishikori’s Olympics so far
What does it all mean for Nishikori?
Though many of his stats have dipped, at his best, Nishikori can still play beastly tennis, going toe-to-toe with one of the best baseliners in the world, returning with aplomb and covering both of his serves confidently.
Unfortunately, what goes up must come down and in his next two matches, Nishikori was nowhere near as meticulous as his first round.
Against Marcos Giron, his forehand was nowhere near as reliable as it had been against Rublev and he won only five more points than his opponent.
Against Ilya Ivashka, he was on the cusp of losing the first set as his aggressive returning seemed to desert him. Nishikori stopped Ivashka serving out the set twice and saved two set points in the tiebreak. Though Nishikori was consistent, Ivashka gave up some of these points quite cheaply, not something he should expect when playing Djokovic on Thursday.
There have been peaks and troughs in Nishikori’s Olympic bout so far… I’d like to use that point as a nice segue into my final topic of discussion.
Does Nishikori have a chance against Djokovic?
Career Peaks and Troughs
To understand Nishikori’s chances against the world #1, I’d like to talk you through some of the best and worst stats of Nishikori’s career.
The best?
Nishikori is a fighter.
Many of you may be aware that Nishikori has the best record in fifth sets of all time, having gone 25-7 (78.1%) throughout his career. You may not be aware that this translates to best of three as well - Nishikori is 3rd best of all time in deciding sets, having gone 142-54 throughout his career (72.5%).
And the worst stat?
Nishikori is susceptible to fatigue and/or inconsistency.
I have come up with a loose way of quantifying a “fatigue percentage” - when a player loses a match, how often do they concede a set 6-0 or 6-12 or how often do they retire.
Nishikori’s “fatigue percentage” is 36.2% i.e. he loses over 1 in every 3 matches conceding a set 6-1 or 6-0 or he retires from the match.
This is higher than the entirety of the world’s current top 20, with player’s like Djokovic and Nadal posting 22.2%, just over 1 in every 5 matches (I’ve put the whole list in the footnotes if you want more relativity3).
Best and Worst against Djokovic
At his best, Nishikori can still play fantastic tennis, outhitting his opponents from the baseline and finding his best tennis the longer the match goes on. He has still got a lethal return game and is able to cover his second serve well.
Djokovic is thee player to beat from the baseline but flashes of brilliance against Rublev suggest Nishikori at his best could hang with him in this department. If he can direct his second serve down the T with accuracy and weight and avoid opening up the court to Novak’s return, he might have a chance of defending his second serve, provided he is hitting the forehand sweetly.
The first serve could be a problem, even at his best. I don’t think Nishikori will get anywhere near as many free points as he did against Rublev - again, he will have to be redlining his forehand if he is going to cover up this hole in his game.
Oh, one thing I forgot to mention - the two players with better deciding set records than Nishikori? Bjorn Borg and Mr. Novak Djokovic. Nonetheless, if Nishikori can take the match to three sets, having played some of his best tennis already and showing he hasn’t been worn down by his previous matches, I’d give him more than a fighting chance.
Now, at his worst…
If the match starts to run away from Nishikori, the fatigue percentage could be a crucial indication of how the match plays out. If Djokovic takes the first set, it’s difficult to see a result that doesn’t end with Nishikori capitulating in the second.
Djokovic may be able to unpick Nishikori’s lacklustre serve and leave him helpless on either wing, Nishikori’s forehand potentially liable to unravelling. If Djokovic is hitting his spots on serve and Nishikori isn’t taking on the return aggressively, the kind of form Djokovic is in suggests the Serb could roll through his own service games.
Any chance for Nishikori?
It’s a bold prediction given Nishikori is currently on a 15-match losing streak to Novak but, at his best, I honestly believe he still has a chance. He was super impressive against Rublev and, if it goes to a third set, which it would likely have to if he has any chance of winning, Nishikori can reach a physical and mental level that could possibly match Djokovic’s.
At the same time, we’ve seen Nishikori fall away repeatedly over the years and Novak has never been a good match-up for him. Four matches in a row is a big ask and with Novak as the fourth opponent, it’s an even bigger ask.
I’m expecting the worst of Kei but quietly confident he could play his best tennis - and that might be enough to give him a fighting chance.
If all else fails, he could always retire and become a penguin.
Agree or disagree with anything in the article? Let me know in the comments below!
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Exclamation mark!
Nishikori has only ever played two other matches against a top 10 opponent winning more than 70% of his second serves.
His win against Stan Wawrinka at the ATP Tour Finals 2016 (80%).
His loss to Federer in Halle 2014 (82%).
I know this isn’t full-proof but losing a set 6-0 or 6-1 is often an indication a player is struggling to keep up with their opponent physically.
Novak Djokovic 43/194 = 22.2%
Daniil Medvedev 25/91 = 27.5%
Rafael Nadal 46/207 = 22.2%
Alexander Zverev 38/135 = 28.1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas 10/87 = 11.5%
Dominic Thiem 44/165 = 26.7%
Andrey Rublev 17/98 = 17.3%
Matteo Berrettini 7/58 = 12.1%
Roger Federer 41/275 = 14.9%
Denis Shapovalov 10/98 = 10.2%
Pablo Carreno Busta 58/175 = 33.1%
Hubert Hurkacz 14/65 = 21.5%
Diego Schwartzman 38/154 = 24.7%
Casper Ruud 14/59 = 23.7%
Felix Auger-Aliassime 14/66 = 21.2%
Roberto Bautista Agut 43/197 = 21.8%
Gael Monfils 84/287 = 29.3%
Alex De Minaur 20/71 = 28.2%
Cristian Garin 16/64 = 25.0%
David Goffin 53/195 = 27.2%
I love your content! Very clear! Thanks a lot. I have one question for you: Why since his incredible come back at Wimbledon 2018, PCB & RBA are difficult match-up to Djokovic (in addition both player don’t have any advantage with their serve). Thanks!