How Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal at the 2021 French Open
How did Novak beat Rafa for a second time at Roland Garros? I've conducted an analysis of their historic semifinal match to determine the answer.
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Grand Slam #19.
Roland Garros #2.
The only man in the Open Era to have won every Grand Slam twice.
Say what you like about the guy, Novak Djokovic has made history this past fortnight, adding a whole new thread of conversation for Djoko-fans to throw into the GOAT debate fire.
Kudos to him for beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final, that was mightily impressive1.
The million dollar question though.
How in Rod’s name did Novak Djokovic usurp the King of Clay for a second time on his favourite court? After losing his last five matches to Rafa on clay?!
Don’t fret!
I’ve analysed the match for you ‘orrible lot to sink your teeth into.
Živeli!
French Open Semifinal: Novak Djokovic defeats Rafael Nadal 3-6 6-3 7-6 (4) 6-2
Wow.
A match for the ages, both gladiators contributing to a truly historic clash.
Okay, I’ll refrain from hyperbole but I will just say the third set is absolutely worth watching and if you haven’t seen it… go watch it?
If you’re still here, let’s explore the different factors that amounted to this momentous victory.
Discussion 1: Fighting back in the face of defeat
Djokovic started the match clutching at straws, whilst Nadal took advantage of the early slump, settling comfortably into dictating proceedings. Djokovic would hit an unforced error on 9% of his groundstrokes in the first set - in every other set, he didn’t break 6%.
Everyone was thinking the same thing when Djokovic quickly found himself 5-0 down - was this going to be a repeat of the first set in last year’s final when he was mercilessly bageled by the great Spaniard?
From there, however, Djokovic won three games in a row, digging deep to execute his intended strategy, rather than looking desperate from the baseline. In the face of adversity, with Nadal 40-0 up on his serve, still Djokovic fought back to deuce.
There was nothing Novak could do about a couple of pinpoint Nadal serves but he’d sent the message he needed to - this wasn’t going to be like last year’s final. He was here to play a competitive match and nothing was going to come easily to his rival today.
This was very important for the Serb.
As Roger Federer has said in the past:
“Confidence always wins.”
Had Nadal started the match in the same vein as last year’s final, he’d have been perspiring confidence.
A small battle won may just have kept Djokovic believing.
There was another moment in the third set where Djokovic looked down and out. Down set point, the pair played out an extended rally where Nadal refused to play to Djokovic’s forehand (we’ll get onto that). From a slightly neutral position, Djokovic won the point with a gutsy drop shot.
Two mini-battles of mental strength that inevitably proved very important.
Discussion 2: Djokovic’s forehand cross-court
I wrote a wee piece on Nadal’s victory over Djokovic in Rome last month.
Djokovic did well to keep the match very competitive considering he’d been resoundingly sent packing in last year’s French Open final.
One of the key shots to Djokovic’s success in Rome?
His cross-court forehand had looked as good as it had for years as he won 64% of the points that included this shot. He clearly recognised this in this year’s Roland Garros final - look at how successfully, and how frequently, Djokovic hit his forehand cross-court in this match compared to recent meetings with Rafa on clay.
Djokovic gave himself the opportunity to hit so many forehands due to the effectiveness of his angled cross-court forehand (which you’re about to see plenty of examples of). This frequently pulled Nadal into the doubles alley, giving his nemesis no consistently effective options.
Drop shot: A low percentage shot from this area of the court on the back foot.
Djokovic (bottom) would have been quick enough to track this one down anyway…
Blast the backhand cross-court: Though it’s a higher percentage shot than going down the line, it has to be executed very well to turn the rally around and avoid exposing the advantage court.
Djokovic (top) responds to Nadal’s (bottom) backhand blast with a ridiculously good forehand drop shot.
Defensive slice to the baseline: Nope. The slice sits up nicely on clay for Djokovic to continue battering Nadal.
Roll it back cross-court: The highest percentage shot but a poor option against an inspired Novak. Djokovic was completely in the zone and dispatches the slower backhand with a short forehand winner out wide.
Blast the backhand down the line: Again, this has to be a hard shot down the line, otherwise Novak’s cross-court backhand could hurt Nadal badly in the advantage court. This is a pretty low percentage shot, however.
Very important point and Nadal (top) goes for the hardest shot possible. He doesn’t pull it off.
This strategy was pure gold for Djokovic as he was hitting this shot immensely well.
In the third set, Djokovic won 16 of the 17 points where he had Nadal in the tramlines due to his forehand.
Talk about a winning strategy.
It’s normally not so easy to pull off but Djokovic hit it on Friday evening with the utmost consistency. Nadal struggled even more than usual to break free from this pattern of play due to the cooler conditions giving less pop to his groundstrokes.
I’ll quickly show you how it impacted the points won.
Djokovic completely dominated the 5-8 shot rally length, building up the opportunity to take the winning shot with this reliable cross-court forehand. Nadal had won 60% of his total points played in the tournament in this rally length going into the semifinal - Djokovic reduced Nadal’s success by a massive 17.6%.
I’ve laboured the point a bit here… but for good reason!
The Djokovic angled cross-court forehand was the shot of the match.
Discussion 3: Nadal’s desperation to shorten the rallies
In the 2020 French Open final, Nadal destroyed Djokovic in the rallies lasting 0-4 shots 52-25. He only managed to win one more point in rallies over this length.
In the 2021 Rome Masters final, Nadal still had a significant lead in this department, winning 58-42 of these rallies. He lost the longer rallies 38-53.
Bear with me here.
If Rafa doesn’t finish the point early, the odds are pretty solid on Djokovic winning the point, even in these matches that Rafa won.
As you saw earlier, Djokovic dominated the longer rallies but he was also able to win the short point battle.
How did he do it? Was Djokovic more aggressive on serve and return?
Not necessarily.
His return was used to neutralise Nadal’s serve and his serve + 1 was often used as a means of finishing the point on a subsequent shot, in the 5-8 shot rally length.
Djokovic won so many points in the 0-4 shot rally length because Nadal committed an uncharacteristic number of unforced errors in an effort to cut the point short.
Nadal knew Djokovic was beating him in the longer rallies. Feeling the pressure to keep the point short, he double faulted way more than he usually does and significantly underperformed on return in this regard.
The long and short of it?2
Just under half of Djokovic’s points won in the 0-4 shot rally length were due to a Rafa unforced error.
Djokovic won the majority of the shorter rallies as a by-product of dominating the longer rallies.
Discussion 4: The whole picture
With these greater points in mind, I’ll walk you through how the match played out.
At the start of the match, a combination of a slow start from Djokovic and the warmer conditions allowed Nadal to keep points short on both serve and return3. We only saw four properly executed angled forehands cross-court from Djokovic as he failed to find a consistent means of winning points.
Djokovic dug deep, however, seemingly oblivious to the score, and though he lost the first set, he had ensured a different tone was set to last year’s final.
Djokovic began to find his rhythm on return, forcing the rallies to extend4. He started striking the fabled angled cross-court forehand with more consistency, locking Nadal into the backhand corner.
The set was tight but the slight advantage clinched the set for the Serb.
Though both players were playing immensely well at the start of the third set, that shot reared its head over and over again. Djokovic won pretty much every point where he could push Nadal out wide and, as a result, Rafa started to cough up some cheap points as he attempted to finish the point early from neutral positions on the court.
Novak edged ahead 5-3.
Nadal raised his game appropriately. He started playing his forehand down the line super aggressively, giving Novak very few opportunities to play the angled cross-court forehand.
Nadal held serve, broke back and held again to move ahead 6-5.
Djokovic won the mental battle from here.
At 30-30, Djokovic made no mistake off a Nadal lob, burying the ball with his ‘weakest’ shot, the overhead smash.
Down set point, Djokovic played a clutch drop shot.
Nadal double faulted to open the tiebreak.
Djokovic hit an angled cross-court forehand winner at 3-3 in the tiebreak.
Nadal missed a volley on top of the net at 3-4.
Djokovic hit an ace at 5-4.
In the fourth set, Nadal attempted a spirited comeback, moving ahead 2-0, but he looked lacklustre from thereon in, perhaps as the conditions grew to their coolest or maybe *gasp* due to mental fatigue.
Nadal’s average first service speed sunk to 106mph, his lowest for any set in the tournament and his double fault rate crept to around one in every seven service points.
Djokovic’s strengths were exemplified. He missed one return and played a higher percentage of forehands in this set than any other. Nadal had no counter-tactics left; Djokovic mercilessly won six games in a row, marching inexorably to victory.
How Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal at the 2021 French Open
Unlike Djokovic’s 2015 victory5, Rafael Nadal was in title-winning form. Against all odds, however, Djokovic found a way to overthrow the King of Clay. It’s awe inspiring to see him tapping into his absolute best clay-court tennis at the ripe old age of 34.
I don’t think Rafa knew what hit him. Djokovic hadn’t come close to implementing this sort of strategy in their last five meetings and, consequently, Rafa struggled to react with an adequate counter-strategy. It’s testament to Rafa’s brilliance that he found a scary level of tennis to mount his resistance but Djokovic was ultimately a worthy winner.
One for the history books.
Who knows where Djokovic goes from here? This start to the season has a different feel to his 2016 Australian Open and French Open wins as the man is anything but lacking in motivation…
He’s deadly focused on winning Slams so the Calendar Slam ain’t outside the realms of possibility.
Will Novak show any mercy this season?
I can’t wait to see how this titillating storyline ends.
Other French Open 2021 articles:
Analyses of the women’s French Open winner, Barbora Krejcikova’s, final two matches here.
Men’s Fourth Round analysis here.
Women’s Third Round analysis here.
Men’s First Round analysis here.
Thanks to tennisabstract.com and rolandgarros.com for many of the statistics.
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I was considering writing an analysis of this match too but this single analysis went on way longer than I expected. I may write an analysis of the final later in the week.
Ha. Ha.
For those interested in more stats.
Percentage of Nadal’s total service points that he won in 0-4 shots.
Set 1: 13/42 = 31.0%
Set 2: 6/22 = 27.3%
Set 3: 14/47 = 29.8%
Set 4: 3/24 = 12.5%
Percentage of Nadal’s total return points that he won in 0-4 shots.
Set 1: 7/29 = 24.1%
Set 2: 5/35 = 14.3%
Set 3: 6/49 = 12.2%
Set 4: 3/20 = 15%
More stats if you don’t believe me!
Djokovic missed two returns in the second set - as a result, the lowest amount of short rallies took place in the second set.
Percentage of rallies finished in 0-4 shots.
Set 1 = 32/71 = 45.1%
Set 2 = 21/57 = 36.8%
Set 3 = 42/96 = 43.8%
Set 4 = 22/42 = 52.4%
When Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal in the 2015 French Open quarterfinals, the Spaniard had a winning percentage of 77% on clay that season coming into the tournament, his worst spell of clay-court form prior to playing the French Open (excluding last year when one tournament had been played during the run-up).
This season, Rafa had an 88% winning record, including two titles and wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak himself.
"Djokovic hit an ace at 5-3." I believe it was 5-4 when he hit the ace, to go up 6-4 in the tiebreak.
Great analysis! Really like the way you write.
Just to correct an error. Djokovic is not the only man to win each Grand Slam twice. Roy Emerson and Rod Laver both did it. Tennis did actually exist before 1968!