Guadalajara 2022: How Jessica Pegula defeated Maria Sakkari
Our analysis of Jessica Pegula's intelligent win over Maria Sakkari to win her first title of the season at the WTA 1000 in Guadalajara.
Hey gang, no long time no speak! A quick one today on what happened at the WTA 1000 in Guadalajara last week.
Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari squared off for their first title of the season... and it was Pegula that prevailed. Though there were those ever-present final nerves from Sakkari, Pegula played very intelligently to come through Sakkari and the four Grand Slam champions preceding her (Azarenka, Stephens, Andreescu, Rybakina).
Here are all my thoughts on the biggest win of Pegula's career 🇺🇸🇲🇽
Sakkari's Strengths Under Pressure
The idea that Sakkari is flaky under pressure is only half true. Her forehand certainly does have a tendency to fail her the deeper in a tournament she goes - however credit needs to be given where it is due.
Throughout the tournament, Sakkari was a break point saving machine!
11/13 v Kostyuk
4/7 v Collins
14/15 v Kudermetova
10/12 v Bouzkova
Total = 41/49 saved (84%)
There are a few things that can be attributed to this.
Backhand Cannon
Firstly, let's address the conundrum players faced playing Sakkari in altitude. Whilst it may seem easy enough to tell your player as a coach to unravel the forehand, you can't afford to give Sakkari too many looks at this shot before she finds her rhythm - after all, Sakkari's forehand is still the biggest weapon in her arsenal!
On the flipside of that, going into her backhand at altitude can be a precarious strategy. Sakkari's control over her backhand under pressure is actually exceptionally impressive, benefitting more from taking on risk on this wing than she would in other conditions. This often left players this week hoping for a Sakkari forehand implosion.
Marie Bouzkova is one of the best examples. One of the steadiest players on the tour, she repeatedly asked the question of both wings but found it difficult to get the balance right.
Sorry for the dodgy GIF quality1.
All of Sakkari's previous opponents were left at her mercy from the baseline... with mixed results, her forehand looseness generally the reason for her facing so many break points.
Serve Variety
With the forehand questionable under pressure, how did Sakkari reliably unstick her opponents down break point?
In altitude, where the ball reacts with volatility off the strings, Sakkari recognised the advantage of giving opponents different looks off of her serve.
Against Kudermetova, whom she saved 14 of 15 break points against, Sakkari's first-serve speed down break point was 90mph. The range however spanned from a 109mph unreturnable down the tee to a 73mph kicker out-wide.
Under pressure, Sakkari could rely on two things.
Her backhand is a big weapon in thin air. Her two-handed grip gives her the extra control she requires when the pressure is on.
Her serve variety throughout the tournament was astounding, drawing errors from opponents off of slow-speed serves on HUGE points.
So how did Pegula deal with Sakkari's strengths under pressure?
Pegula's Response
Honestly, Jessica Pegula was a NIGHTMARE match-up for Sakkari in the final.
Those strengths and weaknesses in a high-pressure situation - booming backhand cross-court, varied serve and flaky forehand? Pegula was incredible at neutralising/exploiting all of these with her steadiness and her feel.
Pegula's steadiness and placement allowed her to change direction down the line at the drop of a hat. This made it very easy for Pegula to avoid the backhand after two or three consecutive shots, frequently putting Sakkari's forehand under pressure without giving her too many chances to play offensively.
When Pegula did go into the forehand without pace, she made sure to give Sakkari a junkball to work with. This is where her feel comes in - Pegula was often able to find the forehand from defensive positions with some variety, a slice or a moonball perhaps, something to continuously give Sakkari different looks.
In the final, it was Sakkari that was constantly given different looks.
Those kick-serves were met with varied returns.
Pegula's forays forward often gave Sakkari little pace and/or height to work with.
When Sakkari did try to sit back, Pegula went down the line with aplomb.
An incredibly intelligent match from Jessica Pegula...
Guadalajara 2022: How Jessica Pegula defeated Maria Sakkari
After the match, Jessica Pegula said:
"I almost didn’t come here because I don’t like playing in altitude, I have a horrible record in altitude. I definitely changed that this week for sure, went through a lot of mental battles. It’s been an interesting incredible week."
This is one of the most surprising things I've heard all year. On paper, I assumed Pegula's variety, consistency and flat strokes would make her one of the clear favourites in Guadalajara (you made the final in Madrid too Jess!).
I think Pegula surprised even herself and it may stem from the improvements she's made to her doubles game. Her steadiness alone may not have been enough to win her the tournament2 in previous years but with that variation added to her game, she was well-equipped to junk her way to winning a few more crucial points, ESPECIALLY against Sakkari in the final.
Hopefully Sakkari eventually finds her A-game to get that elusive second title.
For now though, congrats to Jessica Pegula and, to both, all the best at the WTA Finals! 👏
Certain broadcasters have blacked out screen recording on all available browsers... Unfortunately this leaves me at a loose end with some of my analysis. Here's a video recording whilst I figure out what to do in the mean time.
She did save two match points against Elena Rybakina in the second-round after all!