0-2 down: Who is the greatest of all time at the comeback?
Dropping the first two sets in a tennis match would be curtains for most tennis players. We take a look at the elite players that thrive when they are seemingly down and out.
Any tennis fan will be familiar with this scenario.
Your favourite player drops the first two sets to their opponent at one of the biggest tournaments of the year. Whether it’s Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, you are certain they’ll be packing their bags momentarily. When your guard is down and you’re ready to throw in the towel, only then do the best players in the world dig deep to rewrite the script. You can barely believe your eyes as they scrape and claw back the momentum, before inevitably pulling off the impossible - the two sets to love down comeback.
There is no spectacle in sport that can rival the drama of it. It begs the question - when you’re at home with your feet up watching the latest major event, which player can you rely on to deliver the drama? Who has the gall to keep fighting when everyone else has given up on them? Who is the greatest of all time (GOAT) when they are two sets to love down?
The most 0-2 comebacks
One method in determining the GOAT of the two sets to love down comeback is compiling a list of those who have achieved this the most times. This list includes any best of five match where the player could be 0-2 down in the Open Era (this includes Davis Cup, Masters finals, etc.).
Only seventeen players have achieved the fabled comeback at least seven times. With this lone criterion, simply tallying the most wins from 0-2 down, the joint GOATs would be Federer, Murray and Becker.
The highest winning percentage of 0-2 comebacks
It’s not as simple as that, however. Have these players dropped their opening two sets to lesser opponents? How often do they find themselves two sets to love down?
One’s gut reaction might be to consider comparing their number of wins from 0-2 down with their losses from 2-0 up. The two skill sets required are completely different, however. A player’s inability to hold their nerve from a seemingly unassailable lead arguably has little or no bearing on their ability to pull off a comeback from the brink of defeat.
The solution may be to look at each player’s overall winning percentage from 0-2 down. Out of all the times a player has dropped their opening two sets, what percentage of the time are they able to complete the comeback? This is a list of the top ten players with the best winning percentages from 0-2 down in the Open Era (they must have recorded at least four comebacks).
The ranking of each player’s opponent has not been taken into account here. If an opponent has been playing well enough to go two sets to love up against any given player, it could be argued the ranking of said opponent is irrelevant to the level of play they could sustain for the rest of the match.
With this assumption acknowledged, the GOAT of the 0-2 comeback is South African retired player Kevin Curren. He just edges out Rod Laver at the top having lost one less match from 0-2 down.
The winning percentages of the GOATs
In order to realise how relatively impressive Curren’s 35.0% winning percentage from 0-2 down is, it is important to know where this winning percentage sits amongst the greatest in the sport.
Ultimate Tennis Statistics have created a list of tennis’ greatest players of all time, based purely on statistical criteria. Here are the winning percentages of the top 20 from this list.
Some of the greatest players in tennis do not have an outstanding record from 0-2 down.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal win just over 10% of their matches from this position. This is surprising, particularly from Nadal who is renowned for his constant intensity.
Perhaps it’s indicative of a player’s ability to adapt. Roger Federer and Andy Murray are versatile players who are able to fall back on different plans of attack when things go south. Djokovic and Nadal are arguably more one-dimensional - their one dimension is normally imperious in full flow, but perhaps they struggle to employ an alternative strategy when pushed to do so.
Another theory is that the more aggressive players of the Open Era are able to find an extra gear to outhit their opponent when they are losing (Murray’s success is more likely down to his tactical prowess and versatility rather than his aggression). Nadal and Djokovic are excellent defensive players but if their opponent is blowing them off the court, a defensive strategy would only get them so far.
Special Mentions
There are a few players that deserve praise for singular moments in their career where they owned the 0-2 comeback.
Three players have made the 0-2 comeback three times in one Grand Slam event.
Nicolas Escudé defeated Magnus Larsson, Richey Reneberg and Nicolas Kiefer in his semifinal run at the 1998 Australian Open.
Albert Costa defeated Sergio Roitman, Nicolas Lapentti and Tommy Robredo in his semifinal run at the 2003 French Open.
Tommy Robredo defeated Igor Sijsling, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro in consecutive rounds in his quarterfinal run at the 2013 French Open.
Todd Martin is the only player to have made a 0-2 comeback in three consecutive Grand Slams. He defeated Hendrik Dreekman at Wimbledon 1999, Greg Rusedski at the US Open 1999 and Byron Black at the Australian Open 2000.
The King of the Comeback
Out of the active players on tour, even with his injuries, Andy Murray would be the man to back from 0-2 down. He secured his last comeback victory as recently as at last year’s US Open beating Yoshihito Nishioka, proving he is still able to grit his teeth as stubbornly as ever.
Looking at winning percentages from 0-2 down throughout the entirety of the Open Era however, former Australian Open and Wimbledon finalist Kevin Curren is the king of the comeback. By generating his own pace and regularly utilising the serve-and-volley, he had the power to outhit his opponent when things weren’t going his way.
Long may warriors like Federer and Murray continue to find themselves on the precipice of defeat. The tennis world will continue to be spoilt by their awe-inspiring comebacks.
All statistics sourced from https://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com.
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FYI, the percentage for Laver is incorrect. 7/14 is not 33 percent.
Brilliant read. Thanks for that. Could you point me in the direction of where you get the data for this? I would very much like to create a betting strategy based on analytical data